Missed 84.5% chance of winning.메이저사이트

The World Baseball Classic (WBC) baseball team, led by head coach Lee Kang-cheol, lost 7-8 to Australia in the first round of Group B held at the Tokyo Dome in Japan on the 9th. Korean baseball, which was eliminated in the first round after losing the first game in both the 2013 and 2017 tournaments, was on the verge of being eliminated in the first round of the WBC three times in a row. If they lose against Japan on the 10th, their advance to the quarterfinals, which is possible up to second place in the group, will be virtually thwarted.

It’s not that there wasn’t a chance to win. At the end of the 5th inning, where the national team trailed 0-2, Eui-ji Yang turned the game around with a three-run home run. The atmosphere that had been dragged into perfection until the 4th episode was changed to one swing. According to Baseball Savant, a major league statistics site, Korea’s chance of winning, which was only 27.1%, jumped to 67.7% after Euiji Yang’s home run. At the end of the 6th inning, where the national team led 3-2, Park Byeong-ho’s timely hit from 2 out on 1st base widened the score gap, and the win rate soared to 84.5%, the highest in the game. The fact that the probability of winning is over 80% can be interpreted as meaning that the game has actually been won. However, this probability was not kept.  

In the beginning of the 7th inning, where the national team was leading 4-2, Kim Won-joong allowed Robbie Glendining a three-run home run with two outs, second and third base, and the chance of winning dropped to 34.2%. At the beginning of the 8th inning, behind 4-5, Yang Hyeon-jong even hit a wedge three-run home run to Robbie Perkins in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd bases. Australia’s chance of winning rose to a whopping 96.5%. On the other hand, with two home runs, the national team’s chance of winning plummeted to 3.5%.

I had one last chance. At the end of the 8th inning, trailing 4-8, the national team pursued with Park Byeong-ho’s push-off walk with no bases loaded. In the continued chance, Kim Hyun-soo added a point with a ground ball to first base, and Park Gun-woo continued the chance with a full base with a ball that hit the body. The probability of winning, which had been in single digits, fluctuated to 36.5%. The national team caught up to 7-8 with Oh Ji-Hwan’s infield grounder, and Kim Hye-Sung walked to make the bases loaded with two outs. But it was just there. Na Seong-beom blew a chance to tie the game by striking out on a missed swing. After Kim Hye-sung’s walk, the chance of winning, which was 35.6%, dropped significantly to 15.8%.

At the end of the ninth inning, lead hitter Tommy Hyeon-su and Edmon’s hit increased the national team’s chance of winning (32.8%), but Kim Ha-seong and Lee Jeong-hoo’s consecutive hits forced them into a corner. In the end, Edmon’s stealing failure came out in the 2nd and 1st base, and the probability of winning fell to ‘0’. For the national team, the two three-run homers allowed in the 7th and 8th innings were painful. There was no business in front of the home run.

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